NOAA predicts three to five major hurricanes?

This story will appeal to those who like to plan ahead.

Okay, only two readers left. Joking, but probably not far off, which is why whenever a hurricane approaches this part of the gulf, the grocery shelves empty before you can say, hop in the truck and let’s go to H-E-B.

Oops, there goes the milk and water, the store shelves are empty, and why are there now 25 cars and trucks lined up at the gas pumps?

Oops, out of gas, too. That’s because relatively few people prepare in advance for a possible hurricane, Category 3 or higher. You know, the kind of storms that can flood an area, kill people, and destroy property.

Be Proactive

This season the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting only a 30-percent chance of a normal hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and a 60-percent chance of an above-average season.

According to NOAA, “The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).”

Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA says it has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

More from the weather folk:

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

Now right there, it looks like Lutnick just jinxed us with his “most advanced weather models.”

It’s like claiming that the Titanic couldn’t sink. We know how well that went.

Question is, because the climate seems to have changed so much from historical weather patterns, how reliable any more is the historical data?

NOAA, though, still seems to think that it can predict storms based on historical patterns:

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.” (Source: NOAA.)

The federal agency wants the public to take proactive measures. Question is, will it?

From NOAA:

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens.”

Hard to believe that it’s been 20 years since Hurricanes Katrina (Louisiana) and Rita (Texas) hit, but it has. Forty-five years since Hurricane Allen hit the Valley with so much force in August 1980, devastating the area.

Even if people don’t prepare ahead of time, they can still keep an eye on the weather, and if a big storm even looks like it’s headed this way, that’s the time to stock up if they can afford it. Not when the hurricane is rotating counterclockwise off South Padre, just trying to decide exactly where it wants to hit — north of the Rio Bravo or south?

Another Odd Paradox

Finally, in an odd paradox, this is yet another summer when most of us actually have to pray/hope that a storm dumps vast amounts of rain either in South Texas so it hits the reservoirs, Amistad and Falson, or goes into the northern part of Mexico and dumps rain into their watershed, which will still benefit South Texas as the water feeds into the two reservoirs.

Like always, we have to add this caveat — a lot of water, but no serious property damage, no lives lost.

Edinburg on the Rise

News came out of the City of Edinburg this week — the city, according to the 2024 U.S. Census, now ranks as one of the country’s fastest growing cities.

In the span of only one year, from 2023 through 2024, Edinburg grew by 2.62 percent.

According to the Edinburg press release:

“This surge places Edinburg 25th in the nation for fastest percentage growth among cities with populations of 100,000 or more, and 10th in the state of Texas. The city also stands out as the fastest-growing municipality in the Rio Grande Valley.”

That’s all well and good, but then you take a look at the combined water storage in the two reservoirs, Amistad and Falcon, that belongs to the U.S., which feeds Laredo and all of the RGV, and see that it now stands at only 22.06 percent, and one still has to ask, where will the water come from to support continued growth here?

Sure, Mexico has promised to now pay us the water it owes, according to the 1944 Water Treaty, on a regular basis moving forward, but that’s only contingent upon them getting some much needed rainfall. Currently, like us, they’re suffering through a drought.

Also, based on the current weather patterns, can historical data, related to rainfall, be trusted any longer?

This started off as a news story and then turned into semi-commentary, but water, for this area, and northern Mexico, is more precious than gold, and no one still has a plan on how to get more delivered here.

All of the plans floated so far, line all the irrigation canals with cement to decrease loss, build new wells, build a desal plant, take time to plan, develop, and construct.

Which goes back to the point already made — let’s pray, hope that we get a lot of rain this summer to replenish our two reservoirs.

If Edinburg grew by 2.62 percent in one year, it probably goes without saying, the population count in other Valley cities is also on the rise while the water level continues to pose a problem if it continues to drop.