Raids on construction sites bad for business
With the construction industry in the Rio Grande Valley down by an estimated 30 to 35 percent, along with a warning from a building trade rep who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 — “South Texas will never be red again” — what’s going on?
Sit back, set a spell, and read about a time like no other: The local construction work delays drag on, that’s a fact, and still no change in ICE policy — if you’re in this country illegally, come rain or shine, you are getting deported.
Doesn’t matter if you’re in the middle of laying down cement for a new driveway, “You’re coming with us.”
Immigration policy shifted in the early months of last year. The administration prioritized “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” (Source: Bloomberg.)
Some people cheered, some people jeered, but there is no denying it’s had a profound effect on the Valley.
Immigration on ICE
Whereas in years prior, including the president’s first term, ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) had largely ignored someone on the job, walking the street, driving down the road, who looked like a long-term plumber, maid, college student. Now, since the current “zero-tolerance” directives have removed those practical protections, ICE agents are now encouraged to make “collateral arrests.” (Source: Texas Standard.)
Meaning, if federal agents are in a neighborhood looking for “Target A,” and they see someone who “looks the part,” they can stop him or her for questioning without any probable cause.
If the person stopped admits he/she doesn’t have “papers,” they are arrested on the spot — even without a prior warrant.
From there, they go before an immigration judge, who serves at the pleasure of the president. To stay in the U.S., they must successfully prove and/or argue one of three things:
# They are of good moral character.
# They have been in the U.S. for at least 10 continuous years.
# Deporting them would cause “exceptional and extremely unusual hardship” to a spouse, parent, or child who is a U.S. citizen or holder of a Green Card.
Even then, most immigration judges are going to feel the pressure to deport, immigration attorneys have argued.
Why? Because immigration judges, first appointed to office by the U.S. Attorney General, can be fired by any White House administration currently in power, typically acting through a compliant AG and the Department of Justice (DOJ), rather than through a direct presidential order.
Immigration courts are part of the DOJ, not the independent judicial branch. Meaning, immigration judges are treated as at-will employees, allowing the Executive Branch to hire and fire them, with the help of a compliant attorney general. (Source: Politico.)
In fact, in 2025, not long after Trump took office, there was a purge, of sorts, across immigration courts, tossing out those (some) with legal backgrounds in immigration defense or those who may have been appointed by Joe Biden or another Democrat in the White House.
Into their shoes stepped GOP attorneys who had previously worked as either ICE prosecutors or military lawyers.
The federal fight to deport undocumented immigrants was on.
Meaning, most of the Valley workers being detained by ICE these days don’t stay in the U.S.; and once word gets around, which it has, that federal agents are descending on work sites looking for undocumented immigrants, any and all, workers become scarce.
Such was the message that the South Texas BuildersAssociation (STBA) wanted to bring to D.C. the first week of February (2026).
The Workforce Deficit
While there, the builders delegation met with congressional leaders and White House officials, warning that intensifying immigration enforcement and a critical shortage of LEGAL LABOR have brought residential construction in the Rio Grande Valley to a “BREAKING POINT.”
According to the Texas Tribune, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has arrested more than 9,100 people in South Texas since the current administration took office, representing nearly one-fifth of all such arrests statewide.
The STBA delegation, led by President Ronnie Cavazos and CEO Mario Guerrero, reported that these operations have triggered a 30- to 35-percent economic downturn in the regional construction sector as workers avoid job sites out of fear.
Data analyzed by the Texas Tribune and reported by Texas Public Radio indicates that the labor disruption is having a measurable impact on regional development.
For example, the STBA reported that a standard 2,000-square-foot starter home, which historically required four to five months to complete, now frequently takes nine to 10 months to build.
“You can’t just get somebody off a couch to start framing a house,” Mario Guerrero stated, according to reports from Spectrum Local News. He noted that aggressive enforcement tactics, including agents reportedly following cement trucks to job sites, have resulted in immediate losses of up to $30,000 per site in spoiled materials and stalled labor.
One hope on the horizon, albeit moving at a snail’s pace, is a proposed bill now before Congress, introduced last September – H.R. 5494, AKA, The Essential Workers for Economic Advancement Act.
As reported by the Texas Tribune, the bill would establish a new H-2C visa category for non-agricultural workers. Key provisions of the proposal include: # An initial allocation of 65,000 visas for non-agricultural, low-skilled sectors.
# Requirements for criminal background checks and a valid job offer.
# A three-year residency with options to renew for up to nine years.
# Protections to ensure American workers are not displaced or underpaid.
Economic Ripple Effects
The concerns on the part of the STBA were echoed by local business leaders who accompanied the group.
Isaac Smith, co-owner of Matt’s Building Materials, told the Texas Tribune that his family’s stores have seen double- digit sales declines as lumber orders stall.
“If job sites are getting raided, at any level, the construction can’t continue,” Smith said.
During a South Texas Builders Association meeting last month, Valley Land Title CEO and President Paul Rodriguez warned about the effect that fear among the working class is having on the RGV and local banks:
“Just last week I was visiting with the CEO of (a local bank), very active, who was telling me that he had just gotten a call from one of his builders, (to say) that they had 18 construction workers picked up on-site. So needless to say, that work just completely came to a halt.”
At that same January STBA meeting, another family member tied to Matt’s Building Materials, co-owner Jeremy Smith, said the first half of 2025 was on an upward trajectory, but then came the second half of the year (when ICE raids at work sites began to really pick up speed):
“The first half (of the year) was sensational. And then all of a sudden, it felt like the carpet was pulled out from under our feet. Bear in mind there was an expected gain in the second half (2025), there was momentum (going into) the second half. And all of that momentum was lost.”
According to Smith, the economic output fell by approximately 30 to 35 percent, mirroring what other people have said.
A Rocky Road Ahead
While the STBA is pushing for reform, the federal landscape remains challenging. According to the Federal Register, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently authorized an additional 64,716 H-2B supplemental visas for fiscal year 2026, but these are limited to businesses that can prove “irreparable harm.”
So, some may ask, a double- digit decline in lumbar orders doesn’t qualify?
The fact that regional banks, some, are worried that some construction companies in the RGV are going to start defaulting on loans?
Nothing to see here, move along?
Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson stated last month that there is “no shortage of American minds and hands” to grow the labor force. The Trump administration has argued that its “America First” agenda aims to capitalize on this potential and fill jobs with American workers as immigration laws are enforced.
However, researchers cited by the Texas Tribune warn that the current pace of deportations is likely to make shortages in construction labor and housing more severe than during previous enforcement periods.
South Texas builders have warned that without a stabilized workforce pipeline, the South Texas housing market faces a permanent increase in prices for new families.
For an area like the Rio Grande Valley, where all four of its counties voted for Donald Trump in 2024, these aggressive ICE raids, arrests, which some people still applaud, will have political repercussions, both as the midterms draw closer and well into future election cycles.
From a Politico story published Feb. 14, referencing the STBA trip to D.C. earlier this month:
“I told [lawmakers] straight up: South Texas will never be red again,” said Mario Guerrero, the CEO of the South Texas Builders Association, a Trump voter who traveled to Washington (two weeks ago).