Leverage Finally Pays Off: Mexico will release owed water to U.S.

For decades, Mexico failed to live up to its end of the 1944 U.S./Mexico Water Treaty, while the folks in D.C. did nothing to force the issue, even during the years when Mexico was flush with the wet stuff.

More than a few of our Valley farmers went belly up, the Santa Rosa Sugar Mill closed in February 2024, and the citrus growers were singing the blues too.

Some people said, yeah, but sugar cane uses up too much water.

Maybe, but the loss of the old Santa Rosa mill wiped out approximately 500 jobs (full-time and seasonal) and had a negative impact on the local economy in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Meanwhile, south of the river, Mexico was actually ramping up its ag industry, using our water, while our crops either withered on the vine or never got planted because no one could count on reliable water, save those very few water districts still flush (e.g. #2).

Still, our federal government did nothing but rain down platitudes.

There was leverage to be had, though, up in the Colorado Watershed, where the U.S. always pays Mexico its share of that very same treaty — 1.5 million acre feet per year

In other words, we were holding up our end, but Mexico was not.

Down here in the RGV, some farmers could be heard saying, “Why do we always pay Mexico the water we owe, while letting it get away with non-payment?”

In fact, and this needs a source, but the other gripe was — even during the years when our side (U.S. water stakeholders) would suffer a deficit from the Colorado if we turned over the water to Mexico, the U.S. still met its obligation, even at the detriment of our own. The treaty, by the way, is split into five-year cycles.

The way Mexico almost always handled its end was to wait until the end of the five-year cycle and then dump the water into the reservoirs all at once. Instead of paying it in annual, incremental installments the way the treaty was intended.

Some years, though, with no summer tropical rains feeding into October, when the new five-year cycle would come to an end, Mexico would simply say, sorry, but we don’t have the water now.

Meanwhile, on our side, in D.C., the IBWC (International Boundary and Water Commission) people would say, "You shouldn’t do that, but can you send us some fresh avocados?" and that would be that.

A New Face

After the second Trump Administration was sworn into office in January, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins assumed office in February.

A Texan by birth, Rollins has been in and out of government/think tank offices for the past approximate 20 years.

She came down to Hidalgo County in March with a congressional delegation during which she announced a $280 million federal block grant to help those in the ag industry who have been adversely affected by Mexico’s refusal to abide by the 1944 Treaty.

Off to the side, one local water guru spent time with Sec. Rollins, acting as a guide along the river, and as he said later, “I mentioned to her that if there was one thing I hoped she would take away from this visit, it was the word leverage.”

Then he laid out the Colorado scenario — the U.S. pays its water share to Mexico west of El Paso from the Colorado River Basin, but there is seldom any reciprocity for Texas growers.

The guy in question wants to stay out of the spotlight, but even he admits, yeah, it’s an odd coincidence that not long after Rollins flew back to D.C., the Trump Administration was in the process of telling Mexico that if it didn’t pay what it owed Texas/the U.S., then the U.S. would withhold the water further west and some additional tariffs might get added to the mix.

Tit for tat. 

Several weeks ago, Trump posted this on his social media account, including the upper caps:

“My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEYARE OWED!”

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, made an announcement April 11 that Mexico would immediately deliver water to Texas farmers, citrus growers, aimed at easing tensions between the two countries.

This Tuesday (April 29), the ag secretary’s office sent out this press release: 

“U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announces a major win for American agriculture by securing the agreement of the Mexican government to meet the current water needs of farmers and ranchers in Texas as part of the 1944 Water Treaty. The Mexican government committed to transfer water from international reservoirs and increase the U.S. share of the flow in six of Mexico’s Rio Grande tributaries through the end of the current five-year water cycle. In the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, Secretary Rollins has affirmed the bold leadership of President Donald J. Trump by supporting America First Policies.” 

Hey, to get the water, we’ll let them get away with a little flattery.

“Mexico finally meeting the water needs of Texas farmers and ranchers under the 1944 Water Treaty is a major win for American agriculture,” said Secretary Rollins.

“After weeks of negotiations with Mexican cabinet officials alongside the Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, we secured an agreement to give Texas producers the water they need to thrive. While this is a significant step forward, we welcome Mexico’s continued cooperation to support the future of American agriculture.”

The agreement between the United States and Mexico solidified a plan for immediate and short-term water relief to meet the needs of Texas farmers and ranchers for this growing season. It includes water releases and continued commitments through the end of this cycle which concludes in October.

The Water Cometh

The water flowing from Mexico into Amistad Reservoir, then Falcon and down river begins this week.

The expected rate of flow is set up in the following way, according to the State Department:

• The United States accepted Mexico’s proposal to increase water deliveries through multiple sources, ensuring a diversification of water supplies requested by Texas stakeholders. The water deliveries will total approximately between 324,000-420,000 acre feet between now and October, an estimated range based on the change of the percentage of allocation, that depends on the amount of rain feeding Mexican tributary flows in the coming July-October rainy season.

• These deliveries will come on top of 110,000 acre-feet of water already made in the current water year that started Oct. 25, 2024, yielding a total of 434,000-530,000 acrefeet for the fifth and final year of the water cycle. Total deliveries for the five-year cycle will be between 854,000 and 950,000 acre-feet.

• Mexico’s commitment also includes:
  • An immediate transfer of 56,750 acre-feet of water at Amistad Dam, followed by monthly transfers at the two international reservoirs (Amistad and Falcon Dams);
  • An increase in the U.S. share from one-third to one-half of the flows in six of Mexico’s Rio Grande tributaries designated in the 1944 U.S.-Mexico water treaty;
  • Additional deliveries of San Juan River water, subject to U.S. acceptance of deliveries when they can be put to beneficial use.
  • Parties will meet in July to assess hydrology conditions to follow up and evaluate the action taken.
  • Parties will hold on-going meetings to agree to a plan under which Mexico will make up their shortfall from this five-year cycle and to make regular, dependable deliveries in the next five-year cycle for the benefit of users in Texas.

In other words, barring a tropical storm, the U.S./Texas won’t get the water past-due, dating back to October 2020, but at least we won’t get any further behind moving forward.

After reviewing this data, one well-seasoned water guru let out a short laugh.

What’s the matter? 

“I’ve been over this with Mexico before. They’ll promise to pay down its water debt, but then it defaults.”

True, but this is the first time the U.S. has used any leverage to force the deal.

“We’ll see.” 

All these years that Valley growers, municipalities, have suffered from lack of water, forced to suck it up as it were, while Mexico was planting crops south of the river, the U.S.. had the leverage needed to enforce the 1944 Water Treaty.

Why didn’t some administration beside Trump ever do it?

Who knows?